![]() ![]() When economic disputes and other disagreements between Moscow and Minsk have unfolded, Lukashenko has shown an independent streak and has courted European support to gain leverage when doing so suits him.ĭespite Lukashenko’s longevity and success at maintaining his rule over Belarus, there are signs that his Soviet-era approach of state-driven economics and political repression will not last indefinitely. Natural political intuition has helped him construct-despite Belarus’s lack of any special natural or strategic resources-a governing system that suits his methods of dealing with the Belarusian people as well as with external forces. He has managed to build one of the most consolidated, adaptive authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space, and perhaps in the world. On the other hand, over time, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has demonstrated that he highly values his country’s independence and sovereignty. Belarus and Russia also enjoy robust linguistic and cultural ties. On the one hand, Minsk is a military ally of Moscow, is linked to neighboring Russia by five integration-based agreements, 1 and is almost entirely dependent on Russia for economic resources. Even if such changes happened in Minsk, Moscow would likely find it more effective and less risky to respond with economic statecraft than with military force.īelarus is the most Russianized of the post-Soviet countries, yet its relations with Russia have become more complex in recent years.
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